ESPN
Aug 1, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
The ESPN fantasy team has been hard at work mock-drafting like it's their jobs. The Mock Draft Project started back in June and since then, we've made sure everyone gets a shot to pick from every slot at least twice in 10-team PPR -- the ESPN standard -- fantasy football drafts, and we've been keeping track of whom everyone is taking, and how often those players end up on their teams. Click that link to see the average draft positions and every analyst's most-drafted players.
We then asked analysts Mike Clay, Liz Loza, Tristan H. co*ckcroft, Eric Karabell, Field Yates, Matt Bowen and Eric Moody offer their thoughts on the experience of drafting more than two dozen times, with the same group of people, and what they took from the project. Their observations are below.
Overall strategy
Clay: Zig when they zag or follow the masses? That's the question on my mind in the early rounds. Five years ago, 10 of the first 12 overall picks (and 14 of the top 20) were running backs, but Running Backs were only five of the first 12 picks (and 10 of the top 23) in our staff mocks. Running backs are more affordable than ever, and I've found a lot of value in attacking RB early. At the same time, I haven't forced it, as with WRs going earlier than ever, solid RB2 options are available as late as the fifth round.
Loza: After participating in 20-ish mocks, I got cute and drafted CeeDee Lamb first overall. Sacrilege passing on CMC, I know. And, no, I didn't do it to avoid the "Madden Curse." I just wanted to experiment. To be honest, the takeaways weren't earth shattering, but it was interesting to discover that while my starting RBs (Travis Etienne Jr., No. 21 overall and Rhamondre Stevenson, 41st) weren't flashy, I was able to stock my bench with an impressive number of upside players at the position. My greatest joy was selecting Zamir White (61st overall) before Moody could claim dibs. I was additionally pleased to roster Blake Corum (101st overall) and MarShawn Lloyd (121) in the double-digit rounds. Passing on McCaffrey early forced me to think about RB depth, and the players that fell to me were high-ceiling lotto tickets that could very well pay off later in the in season.
co*ckcroft: I love the 30-second clock. We're running these mocks on a quick clock, a sort of "speed drafting" that demands heightened attention and preparation. I'm a big fan and think more leagues should rely on it, especially in these days of busy schedules that make picking a draft date next to impossible. Let your managers spend their time, on their own time, crafting a detailed cheat sheet, then knock out your draft in as little as 21 minutes, our record low for one of these (as of July 23, at least). Or, if you're bold enough, set up a series of 10 drafts in which each manager gets to occupy each of the 10 draft slots exactly once, then collect the results in a spreadsheet and award each player to the team that most commonly drafted him (with ties going to the team that drafted that player the earliest). It's one way to neutralize the age-old complaint about draft slot without needing to rely on the salary-cap format, and at a 21-minute total for each draft, we're looking at possibly 210 minutes total, or 3 1/2 hours, to complete the exercise. That's still shorter than a typical salary-cap draft, and it's a better way of smoothing out who truly values each player the most.
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Playing favorites
Moody: I often find myself selecting Cooper Kupp in my fantasy drafts. Kupp, in my opinion, is a better value than Los Angeles Rams teammate Puka Nacua. Despite missing 13 games over the last two seasons, Kupp averaged 9.2 targets and 17.4 fantasy points per game during that span when on the field. Kupp was also open on 87% of his targets last season, the sixth-highest rate of any wide receiver. Plus, the rapport between Kupp and quarterback Matthew Stafford is undeniable. Don't leave your fantasy drafts without him.
Loza: I can't stop scooping Isiah Pacheco. He may not have the most economical running style or elite draft pedigree, but Pacheco is a powerful runner with solid receiving skills who also happens to be attached to, arguably, the NFL's most elite QB. Working behind a top-five offensive line, Pacheco did an admirable job of pinpointing and taking advantage of open running lanes, averaging over 81 scrimmage yards per game in 2023. Facing a light front for over 48% of his snaps, Pacheco regularly found daylight, ripping off 11 breakaway runs (RB11) and racking up 895 yards created (RB12). With no significant additions to the RB room, Pacheco figures to maintain 73% opportunity share, making him a high-floor RB1, particularly for fantasy managers opting to select a WR in the first rounds of their drafts.
Yates: I need to buy a Jahmyr Gibbs jersey ASAP. Drafting at least one running back in the first two rounds is not revolutionary, but the frequency at which I've taken Gibbs affirms my belief in his prospects for his second season. Gibbs is the rare running back who is in a legitimate timeshare yet also has top-5 upside at the position. His receiving portfolio is expected to expand this year to include more routes from the slot or other alignments that aren't from the backfield, boosting the odds of big plays in the passing game. He's so electric and elusive that even if he sees only 16-18 opportunities a game (up from his nearly 14 as a rookie), he'll more than return a second-round investment.
Bowen: I try to land Caleb Williams as often as possible. I'll draft a QB2 in our mocks -- but only if it's Williams. He is a natural creator as a thrower, with the second-reaction ability to pick up numbers on scramble attempts. And I can't think of a better set-up for a rookie quarterback given the pass-catching talent in Chicago. Williams has real QB1 upside in his first pro season.
co*ckcroft: Tyler Fulghum keeps stealing De'Von Achane from me, so I'm taking it out on Clay by stealing Zay Flowers from him. Makes sense, right? Seriously, though, Flowers is a clear target of mine, as I'm leaning heavily on the wide receiver position and anticipate a solid sophom*ore year follow-up. It has been a bummer seeing Achane, a guy I hoped would consistently linger into the fourth round, scooped up at the premium price I think he warrants.
Finding values
Moody: One player that Liz Loza and I constantly fight over is Zamir White. Frankly, I'm surprised Liz and I are still friends after all of these mock drafts. During the 2023 Fantasy Football Marathon mock draft, I had a habit of sniping players from her queue, and that trend has continued during mock drafts this summer. The chat logs for these mock drafts are glorious.
White is someone I'm doing my best to draft in every single fantasy league, and Liz has the same plan as we obviously both see White as an excellent value as a solid RB2 Last season, White finished with 20-plus touches over the final four games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce while Josh Jacobs, who is no longer on the team, was out with a quadriceps injury. During that time, White finished as the RB8. Now that Pierce is officially the head coach, the Raiders should continue to rely heavily on the running game, especially considering their quarterback situation. White's only competition for touches is Alexander Mattison, and our projections have White leading the backfield in touches.
Loza: When Moody snipes me on Zamir White, I often counter by adding Jonathon Brooks, who is being drafted in the same area (Rounds 8-9). Coming off of an ACL tear in November and joining an offense in flux, Brooks figures to face plenty of obstacles in his rookie campaign. Still, the Panthers spent a second-round pick on the Texas Longhorns standout, making him the first RB off the board last April. Having worked behind Bijan Robinson in college, his sample size is relatively small, but what he has put on tape is impressive, including recording 129.5 scrimmage yards per game (RB8) last year. A smooth runner who breaks tackles with ease and has the receiving chops necessary to thrive as a three-down option in the NFL, Brooks figures to climb Carolina's depth chart sooner rather than later. He's a solid RB3 for fantasy purposes.
Bowen: I see really strong value for the RBs in the flex range. David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss, Najee Harris. That group has been on my target list all summer. There's scoring upside here in the low red zone (Montgomery, Moss, Harris), a potential boost in receiving numbers (Swift) and explosive play chops (Warren) Plus, if I go wide receivers early, I feel confident in drafting one of these backs to fill the RB2 spot in my lineup.
What's up with wideouts?
Bowen: I've focused on rookie wide receivers more than ever. This is a loaded rookie class at wide receiver, and I see value at multiple tiers. Now, the one rookie I consistently draft? It's Ladd McConkey of the Los Angeles Chargers. Route skills. Speed. The ability to uncover. McConkey can produce WR3 numbers in his first pro season.
Moody: Diontae Johnson's average draft position surprises me. Now with the Carolina Panthers, Johnson has minimal competition for targets in an offense many expect to improve under Dave Canales. Canales revived the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, and he should have a positive effect on second-year quarterback Bryce Young. Johnson has averaged 8.3 targets per game in his career, though it hasn't always translated into fantasy points. But Johnson will be the Panthers' X receiver, a spot in which players have excelled over the last four seasons under Canales. Johnson is a value as one of the few receivers available at his average draft position who should see at least 100 targets.
Bowen: I never pass on George Pickens. Breakout potential. Explosive play ability (18.1 YPC in 2023). And a new offensive system under Arthur Smith will set up Pickens on third-level throws from quarterback Russell Wilson. With a current ADP of WR29, Pickens can be slotted as a deeper flex in your lineup and has the upside of a WR2. Excellent value there.
Pick your spots
Yates: The 10/11 turn is actually a great spot to be in. You can win your league from any draft spot, including the last pick of the first round. The reason why I've grown to love the 10/11 turn is that, on average, I've had the flexibility to draft two powerhouse running backs to begin the draft and then focus on pass-catchers. A Saquon Barkley-Jonathan Taylor start is tantalizing, and with the better overall depth at wide receiver than running back, you can afford to be more patient there. One specific strategy I've followed from the 10 spot (or even 8 or 9) is patience at quarterback. The reason? The values I've seen at wide receiver or tight end at the third/fourth-round turn have been so good that I've been disinclined to grab a signal-caller early. With just nine other managers in the league, a Kyler Murray, Jordan Love or Jayden Daniels is likely to be waiting much further down the line.
co*ckcroft: The 10/11 turn ties your hands as far as strategy. My viewpoint disagrees sharply with Field's, in that the 10/11 turn diminishes the odds of successfully utilizing a "Zero RB" strategy (in an ESPN standard 10-team league, at least), not to mention it can lead to rough results at the Round 3-4 turn. I've drawn this draft slot at least three times during this study, and in the most recent two, six wide receivers were gone before my first pick and 15-16 before my third, with injury-risk running backs like Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor most commonly topping the ADP rankings at that spot. Field might be more pro-Barkley/Taylor than I, but part of Zero RB is minimizing risk at the position, and those players are about the worst fits for the description this year. I like the freedom of choosing my strategy rather than having it handed to me. You need a league where your leaguemates will draft running backs more aggressively than this group if you're decidedly Zero RB from the 10-spot.
Bowen: I prefer drafting in the 7/8 spot. Here, I can target a Tier-1 wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown) based on how the board has played out, while also securing a RB1 at the turn (Barkley, Gibbs, Taylor).
Don't be in a rush
co*ckcroft: My Zero RB strategies are leaning heavily on Brian Robinson Jr. and Zach Charbonnet. I'm going lighter on drafting running backs this year than I can ever recall, and I'm picking upside types from competitive backfields. But if you'd told me that it was Robinson and Charbonnet, not Zamir White, Zack Moss and/or Javonte Williams, who would wind up my two most commonly selected picks, I'd have been surprised.
Bowen: I don't see the value in rushing to draft a tight end. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I've been notoriously late on filling the tight end spot in my lineup. Sure, I jumped at George Kittle a couple times (because he's a Hawkeye), but I continue to wait till the end of our mocks to grab Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers or Dallas Goedert -- tight ends here who have route traits and potential scoring ability. And, really, outside of the top three tight ends (Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews), I don't see a ton of separation from TE4 to TE10. So, I'll take the bonus opportunities to land another wide receiver or a running back with pass-catching upside, knowing that I can draft one of the tight ends left on the board in a 10-team league.
Quarterback quandaries
co*ckcroft: We're out of our minds for giving Anthony Richardson a greater ADP than Patrick Mahomes. I love Richardson's upside as much as the next guy, but there's something to be said for consistent production and stability in the injury department. Mahomes' receiving corps is upgraded this year, even if only slightly, and I still say he and Lamar Jackson belong a tier above the still mostly untested Richardson in drafts.
Bowen: I'm not buying the declining ADP on Joe Burrow. Throughout our mocks, Burrow continues to remain on the board into the seventh and eighth rounds of drafts. Burrow had injuries last season. We know that. When healthy from Weeks 5-10, however, he averaged 21.4 PPG. I see Burrow, with both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field, as a potential top-5 quarterback this season.
Karabell: After participating in 20-ish mocks, I realized I love my strategy of waiting for a QB. I just got Dak Prescott in Round 12. Round 12! Normally I get Jordan Love or one of the top rookies at QB as my first option, always after Round 10, then double up with ridiculously underrated Brock Purdy (I mean, what more does he need to prove?) and call it a successful mock day. Here, Prescott fell, which is surprising. I'm not zigging or zagging. Consistency and discipline wins out. I go heavy on wide receivers early, get enough viable running backs and a top-10 tight end, and a reasonable QB1 option awaits in the closing rounds. I recommend it, but as always, do your own 20 or so mocks and see what you are comfortable with, because there are myriad effective strategies.
Last line of defense
Karabell: What if the Cleveland Browns are the latest top D/ST in ADP to disappoint? Yeah, that thought dawned on me as I invested in the Browns in the 13th/14th round of just about every mock draft. A few times I had to pivot to the Baltimore Ravens because I waited too long. No worries. I decided I wouldn't wait until the end (Round 15) for a D/ST, fearful of every questionable option after the first five or so, and if I like Cleveland the best -- our projections agree -- then why hedge any bets? It's an exercise. I'm all-in on the Browns from a defensive standpoint. My editor surely will be pleased. As for kickers, eh, last round, and only because they make me take one.
